Evaluating future traffic changes to the marine shipping landscape to 2040 in Canada’s Pacific region
Project summary
Clear Seas engaged Westmar Advisors to study how major resource and terminal expansion projects in Canada’s Pacific region are expected to change marine shipping traffic. Many such projects, with marine shipping components, are approved or under review. These changes could significantly impact the maritime shipping landscape in the coming decades.
The resulting Vessel Traffic Forecast – Pacific Region (VTF-PR) report addresses a critical knowledge gap by consolidating public information on proposed and approved development projects to create a comprehensive dataset of projected ship traffic. This research, which forecasts vessel traffic to 2040 from a 2023 baseline, aims to inform discussions about the risks, opportunities, and challenges of evolving shipping activities. Ultimately, the VTF-PR provides governments, industry, and communities with actionable insights into future vessel traffic patterns and volumes.
In this report, you will learn about
- The development projects planned in British Columbia that are expected to impact vessel traffic levels along the Pacific coast, by region
- How much vessel traffic is expected to increase by 2040, based on development project and vessel type
- Limitations of the forecasting methodology, and the factors that make predicting vessel traffic challenging
Read the report
Key takeaways
Significant traffic growth possible by 2040
The study demonstrates 60% growth in international vessel traffic on the Pacific coast is possible if all proposed development projects proceed as planned
Future traffic total increases evenly distributed
Based on proposed and planned development projects, the South Coast could see an additional 1,194 vessels per year, while the North Coast could see an additional 1,147 vessels per year
The North Coast will see a greater percentage increase in international shipping
Development projects planned around Kitimat and Prince Rupert could contribute to a 217% increase in shipping traffic between Canada and Asia, from 529 vessels per year up to 1676 vessels per year
Tanker traffic growth comes primarily from Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects
LNG projects on both the North and South Coasts of British Columbia will be the main contributors to increased tanker traffic on the Pacific Coast.
Dramatic increase in escort tug traffic intended to keep tankers safe
With more tanker traffic expected in the future, tug operations will need to scale up by tenfold to meet the tanker escort requirements.
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Research Team
Tessa Coulthard
Research Lead, Clear Seas
Michael Cowdell, PEng
President, Westmar Advisors